4chan /biz/ Catalog

The US has 10 days to clear the strait of Hormuz or global markets will crash (not a hyperbole)

At first, markets brushed off the conflict as another 12 day war. However, realization is setting in that Iran is actually capable of deterring passage through the Hormuz strait by 90%.

The problem is that every day that goes on is the equivalent of shutting off 10+ billion barrels of oil every single day. As storage becomes full, producers are forced to shut in production, which takes 2 weeks to restart. Thankfully, most of the world is fine for 1-2 weeks without gulf oil. After that, problems begin.

Oil will reprice a geopolitical premium and $100 is LOW for the magnitude of production shutdown.

What happens: bond yields will roar to new highs as a huge wave of inflation begins. All rate cut probabilities get removed, and you will see the traditional end of the business cycle, high oil prices will turn growth into recession for most economies. None of this is priced in equities. And the longer it goes on, the higher likelihood of it happening.

How to end it? Trump has fallen for a Trump. There is no way to clear irans fast mountain ranges littered with AD and missile silos, thus tankers will keep getting shot in the Hormuz strait. The only way is to put troops on the ground.

Don’t really care if you think I’m a permabear or a doomer, I’m just giving you a warning that for whatever reason, equities don’t want to price in. They don’t understand that this is an existential war for Iran, it’s not some “geopolitical dip”.

Pic is Asian jet fuel prices

Spaniards live far better lives than americans and northern europeans
Americans wish they could have the spanish lifestyle
Walkable cities aren't even a thing in America, european countries have a sense of community and nation that America will never have, you don't have to pay an arm and a leg to see a fucking doctor in Spain.
Spain has the largest high speed rail network per capita in the world.

>Persistent deflation poses a serious challenge. When consumers expect prices to fall further, they delay purchases. That squeezes corporate profit margins, dampens investment and makes it harder for firms to raise wages – further weakening demand and entrenching falling prices.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-03/china-economy-6-charts-explain-why-how-economic-growth-is-slowing-down

Day 1653 of snailposting every day until BTC is at 1M

How?

https://polkadothalving.com/ 10 more days. https://www.parity.io/blog/refining-polkadots-economic-architecture-issuance-DOT-DAP-and-network-adjustments
https://x.com/Polkadot/status/2028482336463945765
"
Polkadot’s economic upgrade begins rolling out in 10 days.

Enhanced tokenomics increases DOT scarcity and introduces new governance and staking mechanisms.

▸ DOT supply capped at 2.1B
▸ Emissions cut 53.6%
▸ Unbonding from 28 days to 24-48 hours
"

No comment

pain and misery are the only friends of the linkie

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>Desktop
Official GUI/CLI wallet
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Previous >>61810651

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