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Have a general question? Want to offer some commentary on markets? Maybe you would just like to throw out a neat fact that doesn't warrant a self post? Feel free to post here! Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq And our side bar also has useful resources. If you are new to investing - please refer to Wiki - Getting Started The reading list in the wiki has a list of books ranging from light reading to advanced topics depending on your knowledge level. Link here - Reading List The media list in the wiki has a list of reputable podcasts and videos - Podcasts and Videos If your question is "I have $XXXXXXX, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions, you should include relevant information, such as the following: How old are you? What country do you live in? Are you employed/making income? How much? What are your objectives with this money? (Buy a house? Retirement savings?) What is your time horizon? Do you need this money next month? Next 20yrs? What is your risk tolerance? (Do you mind risking it at blackjack or do you need to know its 100% safe?) What are you current holdings? (Do you already have exposure to specific funds and sectors? Any other assets?) Any big debts (include interest rate) or expenses? And any other relevant financial information will be useful to give you a proper answer. Check the resources in the sidebar. Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered investment adviser if you need professional support before making any financial decisions! submitted by /u/AutoModerator [link] [comments]

For those new to Reddit and to investing and trading - please be aware that social media platform like Reddit, Discord, etc. can be a vector for scams and fraud. Offers to DM should be viewed as suspicious. Social media platforms continue to be a common method to recruit new investors to scams. - do not assume that an offer to "help" is legitimate. There are many dozens of types of scams - a list of scam types can be found in r/scams in the master list here: /r/Scams Common Scam Master Good explanation of pig-buthering here - Pig butchering - how to spot Legitimate investment advisors do not use WhatApp, Telegram, Discord, etc. to provide tips. In the US - it is against regulation - specifically SEC Rule 17a-4 and FINRA Rule 3110. For example - brokers in the US that use social media for support do not offer investment advice. It is common for bots and malicious actors on Discord to impersonate Reddit and Discord mods to distribute their scams. It is possible to create a Discord profile which appears similar to someone else. Pump and dump of stocks are common on social media - bots or stock promoters who are seeking to profit from pumping a stock or to create hype. You can sometimes identify if it's a bot or promoter simply by looking at the posters comment and post history. Often you will see that the account has posted nothing related to investing or trading but suddenly there is the same or varying versions of comments on one or two specific stocks. One other way to recognize suspicious posts is if the OP never engages in a discussion on comments and questions in the thread on their own dd. Those are all signs of stock promotion. Offers to mirror trade and teach you how to trade are usually fake. If you receive private solicitations to open accounts at a broker or investment adviser, be wary. Depending on where you live - you can verify the legitimacy of a broker or investment adviser. Most countries have legal requirements for investment advisors and brokers to be registered. United States - check the registration status of a broker at the FINRA web site here - https://brokercheck.finra.org/ You can check disclosures for investment advisers at the SEC IAPD web site here - https://adviserinfo.sec.gov/ United Kingdom - Financial Conduct Authority - https://www.fca.org.uk/consumers/fca-firm-checker - a warning list of fake companies can be found here - https://www.fca.org.uk/consumers/warning-list-unauthorised-firms Canada - CIRO - https://www.ciro.ca/office-investor/dealers-we-regulate For those interested in understanding a little more about stock promoting and pump-and-dumps - one of the mods provided an AMA 15 years ago about a penny stock pump operation that he unwittingly became associated with - you can find the AMA here - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/158vi7/i_used_to_be_a_penny_stock_promoter_in_the_late/ If you believe that you or someone has been the victim of a trading or investing scam. Be aware of the following: Do not send more money. Do not provide additional banking or credit card information. It is common to be contacted by additional scammers who may pretend to be law enforcement or private services to offer to "recover" funds for payment. This is a common follow-up scam. Law enforcement will never ask for money. If a login account was created. The password used is compromised. Change all passwords that are used. The password will be shared and sold to other scammers. If payment was sent via a credit card or bank transfer - report the transfers as fraud to your bank or credit card company. submitted by /u/AutoModerator [link] [comments]

From CNBC “I think the war is very complete, pretty much,” Trump said according to Weijia Jiang, CBS’s senior White House correspondent. “They have no navy, no communications, they’ve got no Air Force,” Trump said, according to Jiang, who posted about her interview with the president on X. Trump also said that the United States is “very far” ahead of his original estimate that the war could take four to five weeks to conclude, Jiang said. Oil futures are already down to $83 after soaring to a peak of $115 early this morning submitted by /u/AnonymousTimewaster [link] [comments]

Saudi oil giant Aramco has begun cutting output at two of ‌its oilfields, two sources said on Monday, after the vital Strait of Hormuz was choked by ⁠the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran and subsequent attacks on the waterway. It was not immediately clear at which fields and by how much production was being curtailed. Aramco, which ‌has ⁠been rerouting some of its crude cargoes to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, ⁠did not immediately respond to an emailed request for comment. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/saudi-aramco-reducing-output-two-oilfields-two-sources-say-2026-03-09/ submitted by /u/Possible-Shoulder940 [link] [comments]

There’s been a sort of rolling correction / bear market over the past 6 months or so. One by one, speculative bubbles that went too far have burst spectacularly, whether it’s AI / Big Tech, quantum, big banks, virtual currency, RAM / data storage, precious metals, and more. These investment categories went parabolic in 2025, topped out between October ‘25 & January ‘26, and have nosedived since. It feels like we’ve seen this same movie play out over & over & over, yet speculators keep piling on the latest hot trade of the month… Oil is clearly on a parabolic run right now, jumping from $55 at beginning of year, to $66 before war broke out, to $119 at the time of this writing. It’s gone on a 10-day rally that’s eclipsed the 2022 (Russia-Ukraine) and 2007 (US-Iraq) oil spikes in speed & magnitude. 1) High oil prices are political poison. There is immense pressure for politicians to use every lever they have to push prices down before voters revolt. 2) This is a supply-driven speculative price spike, not a demand-driven shortage. Global demand has been weakening. The U.S. economy is clearly decelerating & China’s is also treading water. That’s why oil was $55 earlier this year. Things that could potentially trigger an oil price reversal in the near future: CME raises margin requirements. They did this in 2022. U.S. and/or IEA release oil from reserves. Both have said this is not yet under consideration, but if prices keep shooting up, they will relent at some point. Iran military / Revolutionary Guards are weakened sufficiently that ships can transit through the Strait of Hormuz again. U.S. military escorts ships & insurance rates fall once there’s a safe passage. Global slowdown / recession dampens oil demand even more. This was what happened in 2008 even as the Iraq war raged on. Iran surrenders. Not likely right now. U.S. led de-escalation. Not likely right now. submitted by /u/MarkusEF [link] [comments]

Every time oil spikes people just say airlines are bad and move on. And yeah, for most of them that's right. Fuel is 20-25% of operating costs, Brent goes to $100, and the financials get ugly. But Delta is a genuinely standout company in the best way and I don't see this discussed. They own a refinery. A crude oil refinery in Pennsylvania. When jet fuel prices spike because crude spikes, Delta captures some of that refining margin directly instead of just eating it as a cost. Every other major airline is purely on the wrong side of that trade. Delta is partially on both sides simultaneously. And here's the thing, they did this on purpose after losing $4 billion on fuel derivatives over eight years. Management said hedging is a loser's game long-term and bought a refinery instead. That's a contrarian capital allocation decision that looks really smart right now. The balance sheet situation also doesn't get enough attention. They just put up $5B in pre-tax profit in 2025, record free cash flow, and got leverage down to 2.4x. They're entering this oil shock in the best financial shape they've ever been in. That matters a lot when you're trying to figure out who survives a prolonged disruption vs. who just survives. Now the honest part, they're not immune. Their 2026 guidance was built on $2.28/gallon jet fuel and that number is skewed if Brent stays elevated. The refinery helps, it doesn't eliminate the problem. But the recovery thesis isn't really about whether Delta suffers less in the short term. It's that when this eventually resolves, they come out the other side with their balance sheet intact, their competitors weakened, and a refinery asset that literally appreciated during the disruption. The gap between Delta and the rest of the sector widens during shocks like this, and that gap is what you're buying. submitted by /u/MathTradeMan [link] [comments]

Here’s why Fundrise VCX may trade at a significant premium: it lets you lock in exposure before another round or two of dilution plus IPO issuance hits the cap table. Fundrise’s VCX page shows a $542.4 million NAV as of February 15, 2026, with top holdings including Anthropic (20.7%), Databricks (17.7%), OpenAI (9.9%), Anduril (6.9%), Ramp (5.1%), and SpaceX (5.0%). But not all AI is created equal. VCX lets you buy a much earlier stake, which is inherently more valuable most of the time. VCX holders own today’s private-company slice; IPO-only investors usually show up after more dilution. Recent Carta data says median dilution on private rounds has fallen to roughly 16% overall, with Series B at 12.9% in 2025, while IPOs are typically primary offerings and companies also commonly enter IPOs with meaningful additional equity dilution from employee share pools. I wondered HOW MUCH more valuable early access is. My projection is +13.1% benefit to the investor. Fundrise’s published portfolio weights and current fund NAV allow us to estimate the current dollar value of VCX’s stake in each holding. Then I apply a company-by-company dilution estimate for the period between now and a plausible IPO. Those dilution estimates are judgement calls executed by an AI-drive analysis. They’re anchored to market baselines, plus each company’s maturity and capital intensity. This is not a forecast of stock prices; it’s an ownership math exercise. If VCX’s current Anthropic exposure is worth about $112.3M on a look-through basis today, and Anthropic goes through roughly 18% more dilution before / at IPO, an IPO-only buyer is effectively accessing a cap table where the equivalent slice has been watered down to about $92.1M of today’s ownership basis. VCX has already captured about $20.2M of pre-IPO ownership head-start on Anthropic alone. Summing it all up we see a 13.1% gap. If private marks are too high then you can absolutely still lose money even if the dilution logic is directionally right. But as a framing device for why VCX could rationally trade well above NAV, I think this is one of the strongest ones. VCX is potentially a way to own pre-IPO cap-table equity that public investors will only get to access later, after more of it has been carved up. Analogy: VCX is not just a bet on private tech. It may be a bet on getting to the buffet before the line forms and before somebody cuts every slice smaller. Am I missing something here, or is that actually a pretty decent reason for this thing to launch with a real premium? submitted by /u/mayorofdunkins [link] [comments]

Enter the East-West pipeline, a 1,200-kilometer (746 mile) conduit crisscrossing the Arabian Peninsula from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea. Its raison d’être is to meet this historic moment: Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The Saudis built it 45 years ago thinking that, one day, Tehran would manage to do what was then unthinkable and halt shipments through the narrow waterway. https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2026/03/09/oil-pipelines-decide-iran-war submitted by /u/CrackHeadRodeo [link] [comments]

Oil prices are on the brink of crossing the $100-a-barrel threshold for the first time in almost four years, as the Middle East’s largest producers start to curtail output with their barrels trapped in the Gulf by the US and Israel’s war with Iran. Traders warned that the oil sector was facing one of its greatest ever challenges, with Iran’s attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz affecting production in countries responsible for about a quarter of global crude supply. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq and Kuwait are all either throttling back output or shutting fields entirely, as they risk maxing out storage tanks as crude backs up in the Gulf. Iran’s production had been depressed by years of US sanctions before the war, and its exports have also fallen sharply in the past week. Further attacks on oilfields and energy infrastructure over the weekend also pose a new threat that could cause prices to soar, just four years after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine triggered the last energy crisis. Last week US oil benchmark West Texas Intermediate posted its biggest weekly rise on record, surging 36 per cent to $90.90 a barrel, while international marker Brent crude hit $92.69. Both Brent and WTI were trading around $60 a barrel in early January. Gains accelerated towards the end of last week, with Brent rising 8.5 per cent on Friday, and traders increasingly betting on a prolonged shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz a chokepoint that normally accounts for at least a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies. “Unless the situation improves quickly I expect we’ll reach triple-digit Brent prices early next week,” said Richard Bronze, head of geopolitics at consultancy Energy Aspects. https://www.ft.com/content/56a01aa5-98af-48f0-b580-89e7bb4f59f6 submitted by /u/Possible-Shoulder940 [link] [comments]

The United States has no domestic titanium sponge production. The last commercial sponge facility, operated by TIMET, was idled in 2020. Approximately 87% of U.S. titanium sponge imports come from Japan per USGS data. Japan is a U.S. ally but has no titanium ore of its own. Japanese sponge producers source ore from Australia and South Africa, process it through the Kroll reduction process domestically, and export finished sponge to the U.S. China produces approximately 63-69% of global titanium sponge and has tripled its capacity since 2018. Most Chinese sponge is not certified for Western aerospace applications. Russia's VSMPO-AVISMA, majority state-owned through Rostec, historically supplied 60-80% of titanium directly to Boeing and Airbus as a direct aerospace-grade sponge and ingot supplier, separate from the Japanese supply chain. That source is now sanctioned. The gap has been absorbed by increased purchases from Japan and Kazakhstan, not by domestic production. Titanium is present in essentially all U.S. military aircraft, naval vessels, missiles, and satellites. There is no direct substitute material that matches titanium's combination of strength-to-weight ratio, heat resistance, and corrosion resistance for these applications. IperionX (NASDAQ: IPX / ASX: IPX) is building domestic titanium production capacity in Virginia using a process that does not require imported sponge. The company has a commissioned manufacturing plant, the largest permitted titanium mineral resource in the United States in Tennessee, and approximately $309M in committed U.S. government funding. The company is pre-revenue. The Policy Context U.S. titanium import dependency has been formally identified as a national security vulnerability by two consecutive administrations: 2017: President Trump issued Executive Order 13817 directing federal agencies to address critical mineral supply chain vulnerabilities 2021: President Biden issued Executive Order 14017, which led to a formal review concluding that reliance on foreign sources for critical minerals including titanium posed risks to national and economic security February 2026: President Trump announced Project Vault, a $10 billion U.S. Strategic Critical Minerals Reserve, and hosted a 54-country Critical Minerals Ministerial in Washington Current Congress: The bipartisan PRIMED Act (Slotkin/Ernst) has been introduced to reduce permitting timelines for domestic critical mineral production. A bipartisan group of senators has proposed a new $2.5 billion agency for domestic rare earth and critical mineral production How Titanium Is Currently Made The Kroll Process (1940s to present) Titanium is the ninth most abundant element in the Earth's crust. The cost differential relative to steel is primarily attributable to the manufacturing process rather than material scarcity. The Kroll process, developed by Wilhelm Kroll in the 1940s, is how nearly all commercial titanium in the world is produced today: Titanium ore (ilmenite or rutile mineral sands) is mined, primarily in China, Mozambique, South Africa, and Australia The ore is converted into titanium tetrachloride (TiCl₄) through a chlorination process TiCl₄ is reacted with magnesium metal in a sealed reactor at approximately 850°C in an inert atmosphere over 50 to 100 hours, producing titanium "sponge," a porous metallic mass The sponge is crushed, pressed, and vacuum arc melted into ingots, typically two or three times to achieve chemical homogeneity Those ingots are hot forged, rolled, or extruded into mill products (plate, bar, sheet, billet) The mill product is then machined or forged into finished components The process from ore to finished part typically takes 6 to 18 months and involves multiple industrial facilities across multiple countries. Material waste from machining titanium mill product into finished aerospace components is routinely 80 to 90% by weight, meaning for every kilogram in a finished part, up to nine kilograms of raw material is consumed. Sponge production (step 3) is the supply chain bottleneck. It requires large, capital-intensive reduction facilities and is concentrated in China (approximately 63-69% of global output, capacity tripled since 2018), Japan (around 15%), and Russia (around 11%). Japan sources feedstock ore from Australia and South Africa and runs a self-contained process domestically. Russia's VSMPO-AVISMA supplied aerospace-grade sponge and ingots directly to Boeing and Airbus as a separate supply chain, now sanctioned. Most Chinese sponge is not certified for Western aerospace applications. The United States has had no functioning commercial sponge facility since TIMET idled its last plant in 2020. Why Kroll persists Aerospace customers qualify specific titanium alloys from specific producers through FAA and DoD certification processes that can take years and substantial cost. Once a grade is qualified for a flight-critical application, qualification costs and program continuity requirements create barriers to changing source. The Technology IperionX has two patented technologies, HAMR (Hydrogen Assisted Metallothermic Reduction) and HSPT (Hydrogen Sintering and Phase Transformation), which together replace the Kroll process. HAMR HAMR uses hydrogen to reduce titanium oxide directly into titanium metal powder. The inputs are either recycled titanium scrap or raw titanium mineral concentrate. The output is titanium powder. The process does not require chlorination, magnesium, or the production of titanium sponge as an intermediate product. Because sponge is not an input, HAMR does not depend on foreign sponge supply chains. HSPT HSPT takes titanium powder from HAMR and sinters and phase-transforms it directly into near-net-shape components. Components come out of the press close to their final geometry, which reduces material waste from machining significantly compared to the 80-90% waste typical of machining titanium mill products. Comparison to Kroll Kroll Process IperionX HAMR + HSPT Raw material input Titanium sponge (imported) Process stages 6+ sequential stages Energy consumption Baseline Carbon emissions High Material waste 80-90% from machining Capital requirements High Feedstock geography Russia, Japan, Kazakhstan, China Lead time ore to part 6-18 months Production method Batch Implications for incumbents ATI, TIMET, Howmet, and other U.S. titanium producers source foreign sponge and process it through Kroll-based methods. Their competitive position rests on existing customer qualifications, alloy certifications, and long-term supply agreements. If HAMR and HSPT achieve the projected cost reductions at scale, the economics of Kroll-based production change relative to IperionX. The incumbents cannot adopt HAMR as the technology is patented by IperionX. IperionX's February 2026 shareholder letter drew comparisons to the Bessemer process for steel, the Hall-Heroult process for aluminum, and Nucor's electric arc furnace adoption as historical examples of new production processes displacing incumbent ones through lower costs. Whether HAMR achieves comparable adoption remains unproven at commercial scale. GenX In February 2026, IperionX introduced GenX, a next-generation continuous HAMR platform. Current HAMR operates as a batch process. GenX is a patent-pending continuous production process, tested at lab and pilot scale. IperionX states it targets higher throughput and capital efficiency relative to the current batch process. Commercial-scale validation is expected in 2026. IperionX cites GenX as the basis for scaling toward 10,000+ tpa by 2030. Cost trajectory Titanium trades at approximately $25 to $50 per kilogram. Stainless steel is roughly $3 to $6 per kilogram. Aluminum is $2 to $3 per kilogram. This cost gap has historically confined titanium to aerospace, defense, and medical applications. IperionX's stated cost targets: Current unit cost at 200 tpa: approximately $55/kg (reduced from a prior estimate of $75/kg with no additional capex) Projected unit cost at 1,400 tpa: approximately $29/kg Long-term stated goal: cost competitiveness with stainless steel and aluminum ARPA-E has estimated $10/kg as the threshold at which titanium could begin substituting for steel and aluminum in broader structural applications. IperionX's $29/kg projection at 1,400 tpa does not reach that threshold. The global titanium fastener market is approximately $4.3B annually. The global stainless steel fastener market is approximately $15.2B annually. The Tennessee Titan Project Location: West Tennessee Size: Approximately 10,086 acres of surface and associated mineral rights (as of December 31, 2025) Resource: 243 million tons of mineralized material, the largest JORC-compliant titanium and rare earth mineral resource in the United States Mine life: 25 years (covering a portion of the total acreage) Permits: Tennessee Department of Environment and Conservation has confirmed all regulatory permit requirements have been met. The project is fully permitted for development and operations. Status: Definitive Feasibility Study targeted for completion Q2 2026. A major Japanese conglomerate is currently sole-funding bulk sample and due diligence test work for potential offtake and development financing. The deposit also contains Dysprosium and Terbium, heavy rare earths used in high-performance permanent magnets for defense systems, robotics, and electric vehicles. China currently dominates global rare earth processing. The DFS will provide the first formal economic assessment of the rare earth component alongside the titanium resource. U.S. Government Funding: $309M Committed DPA Title III Grant: $12.7M (November 2023) Awarded under the Defense Production Act Title III, a program reserved for domestic sources addressing defense industrial base shortfalls. Used to commission and scale the Virginia facility to 125 tpa as a demonstration plant. The grant is matched on a 1:1 cost-share basis by IperionX, bringing the total funding amount to approximately $25M for this phase. DPA Title III is legally available to companies incorporated in the U.S., Canada, U.K., and Australia. IperionX's Australian incorporation is explicitly covered under the statute. DoW IBAS Grant: $47.1M (fully obligated January 2026) Released in four milestone-verified tranches, each requiring government verification of milestone completion before release. In August 2025 the DoW revised the IBAS contract scope to prioritize expansion of Virginia production capacity over the original mine-to-metal supply chain development focus: Tranche 1: $5M for Titan mine DFS commencement and advancement to shovel-ready status Tranche 2: $12.5M (August 2025) for long-lead equipment orders for 1,000+ tpa scale-up (scope revision announcement) Tranche 3: $25M (September 2025) for full 1,400 tpa expansion acceleration Tranche 4: $4.6M plus 290 metric tons Ti64 scrap (January 2026), final tranche. All IBAS obligations now fully received. Important reimbursement note: Both the DPA Title III and IBAS grants operate on a reimbursement model. IperionX incurs costs for approved activities and subsequently invoices the U.S. Government for repayment. Total grants across both programs are $59.8M. As of December 31, 2025, $13.3M has been reimbursed to date, with $46.5M remaining available for future reimbursement as IperionX invoices against approved activities. DoW SBIR Phase III IDIQ Contract: Up to $99M (June 5, 2025) Sole-source contract. No further competition required for task orders. Any qualifying U.S. government agency can place orders directly. The contract covers "Low-Cost Domestic Titanium for Defense Applications" and task orders may encompass fasteners, higher-value aerospace components, and other titanium parts. A $1.3M U.S. Army task order for ground vehicle program titanium parts was the first drawn, announced June 11, 2025. Virginia Halifax County IDA Tax-Exempt Bond Reservation: Up to $400M (at least $100M) The Industrial Development Authority of Halifax County, Virginia has authorized the issuance of tax-exempt private activity bonds of at least $100M and up to $400M to underpin future titanium production expansions. Subject to further approvals and not yet drawn. 290 Metric Tons of Ti64 Titanium Alloy: Delivered at Zero Cost Military-grade Ti64 alloy transferred directly to the Virginia facility in January 2026, surplus to U.S. Government needs. This represents approximately 1.5 years of feedstock at current 200 tpa full operating capacity. Combined with approximately 90 metric tons IperionX already held in inventory, total feedstock on hand is approximately 380 metric tons, or approximately 1.9 years of production at current capacity. How the $309M figure is calculated: DPA Title III grant: $12.7M DoW IBAS grant: $47.1M DoW SBIR Phase III IDIQ ceiling: $99M Virginia IDA tax-exempt bond reservation: $150M (conservative figure used in IperionX materials; the authorized range is $100M to $400M) Total: $308.8M, rounded to approximately $309M Note that the $99M SBIR and $150M IDA figures represent ceilings and reservation amounts respectively, not committed cash. The $59.8M in grants ($12.7M + $47.1M) represents the only fully committed and legally obligated cash funding. The Rheinmetall Order and the XM30 Program On January 22, 2026, IperionX announced a $300,000 prototype purchase order from American Rheinmetall to produce 700 titanium track pins for U.S. Army heavy ground combat systems. The press release does not name specific platforms, but American Rheinmetall is an existing qualified supplier to both the M1 Abrams and M2 Bradley programs and holds a separate $107.5M five-year contract with the U.S. Army to supply M1 Abrams main battle tank tracks. Replacing steel track pins with titanium is expected to reduce component weight by approximately 40 to 45% per component, translating to several hundred kilograms per vehicle. Delivery is expected within 8 to 9 months of the order date, placing delivery around September to October 2026. The press release states the order "has the potential to lead to a significantly larger agreement upon successful delivery." The XM30 Context In June 2023, the U.S. Army awarded combined Phase 3 and Phase 4 contracts worth approximately $1.6B to two finalists for the XM30 Mechanized Infantry Combat Vehicle program: American Rheinmetall Vehicles LLC and General Dynamics Land Systems. The XM30 is designed to replace approximately 3,800 M2 Bradley Fighting Vehicles, which have been in service since 1981, at a projected total program acquisition cost of approximately $45B. American Rheinmetall's team includes Textron Systems, RTX, L3Harris Technologies, and Anduril Technologies. Both companies completed critical design reviews in 2025. In June 2025, the Army approved Milestone B, advancing the program into engineering and manufacturing development. However, in February 2026, Army Chief of Staff General Randy George and Secretary of the Army Dan Driscoll declined to sign documentation finalizing the Milestone B decision, leaving the door open to a major reworking of the program. A February 18, 2026 RFI sought innovative solutions for rapid design, production, and delivery of ground combat vehicles, which sources told Breaking Defense may be a backdoor effort to speed up or potentially revamp the competition entirely, potentially opening it to non-traditional vendors. XM30 is already the sixth attempt to replace the Bradley since the 1980s. Should the program be entirely restarted, it would be the seventh. Under the current schedule, both companies are expected to deliver seven prototypes each by Q4 FY2026. Testing and evaluation runs through mid-2027, with a Milestone C winner selection targeted for Q1 FY2028 per DoD program documents, with first production vehicles fielded in FY2029 and full rate production in FY2030. Why This Matters for IperionX If American Rheinmetall wins the XM30 program and IperionX has successfully delivered the current prototype order, the scale-up potential is significant across a fleet replacement of approximately 3,800 vehicles at a $45B total program cost. The $300K prototype order is the entry point to that potential relationship. Delivery performance by September to October 2026 determines whether the relationship expands. Importantly, this relationship has value independent of the XM30 outcome. American Rheinmetall is already an active U.S. Army supplier with a $107.5M Abrams track contract. Maintenance, repair, and component replacement across the existing M1 Abrams and M2 Bradley fleets represents a near-term market that does not depend on a new vehicle program decision. The risk is that the XM30 program is revamped or restarted, either delaying or eliminating Rheinmetall's position as a prime contractor. This is a material risk that investors should factor in when assessing the potential scale of the IperionX-Rheinmetall relationship. Other Commercial Contracts Ford Motor Company: 45-month sourcing contract commencing 2025, with an expected total contract value of approximately $11M over 45 months (approximately $2.9M per year) for titanium powder and manufactured components. Ford has verified IperionX titanium meets or exceeds ASTM International standards. Panerai (Richemont Group): Production and sale of titanium components for Panerai's eTitanio Brabus and Submersible GMT Titanio Mike Horn luxury watch collections, manufactured using IperionX's 100% recycled low-carbon titanium powder. U.S. Army Ground Vehicle Systems Center (GVSC): Titanium fasteners have been delivered for testing and installation on an operational platform, in partnership with Vegas Fastener Manufacturing under a Product Development Agreement running to April 2026. GVSC is the U.S. Army's primary research and development facility for advanced ground systems technology. Carver Pump: Supply of titanium components for U.S. Navy shipbuilding, announced December 15, 2025. The initial purchase order is for four prototype pump impellers at a value of approximately $100,000, with manufacturing anticipated to be complete in May 2026. IperionX expects to produce each component in under one week, compared to conventional cast parts which can exceed 12 months lead time via traditional casting. Successful prototyping could enable larger-scale production agreements with Carver Pump and the U.S. Navy for additional pump system components. Inventory Build: In parallel with custom prototyping, IperionX is building inventory for mass distribution channels. This includes standard titanium fasteners, nuts, and washers, alongside dedicated fastener production for the U.S. military, as disclosed in the December 2025 quarterly. This signals a shift from purely custom one-off prototyping toward standardized product lines. ISO 9001 Certification: Manufacturing operations at Virginia have achieved ISO 9001 certification, validating quality management processes as production scales. This is a prerequisite for many defense and aerospace customer qualification programs. 200+ NDA-backed customer engagements across defense, automotive, consumer electronics, aerospace, oil and gas, robotics, medical 90+ active customer programs 22 engagements in final prototyping or commercial negotiation as of the last quarterly report Ownership Breakdown ASX register (where the majority of shares are held): Institutions: approximately 43% Retail and general public: approximately 36% Insiders (executives and directors): approximately 17% (approximately AU$100M in aggregate) Private companies: approximately 4% Key individual holders: Fidelity combined (FMR LLC U.S. approximately 8.1% plus Fidelity International approximately 9.7%): approximately 17-18% total, largest institutional holder. Note: BNY Mellon appears on the register as a large holder but in a custodial capacity only as ADR depositary for NASDAQ investors, not as an investing shareholder. Todd Hannigan (Executive Chairman): approximately AU$86M in personal holdings (approximately 7.9% of shares). Purchased 3.5 million shares in a single December 2024 transaction at A$4.43/share (AU$15.5M total). Taso Arima (CEO): approximately 2.3-2.5% of shares Dominic Allen (CCO): top 20 shareholder as of last annual report Van Eck Associates: added 830,731 shares in Q3 2025 Analyst coverage: William Blair (Outperform, initiated January 2026), Roth Capital (Buy, $74 target), consensus target $51 The Short Seller Report Spruce Point Capital Management published their report on October 3, 2025, citing 70-95% downside risk under certain scenarios. The report received limited immediate attention but was widely picked up by financial media on November 12, 2025, at which point the stock dropped approximately 5.6% in premarket trading. IperionX issued a formal rebuttal on November 17, 2025, the day of which the stock dropped a further 9.6% on the ASX before recovering. The stock recovered from both drops and reached $61.45 in January 2026 before pulling back to approximately $47.58. What Spruce Point actually argued: Their primary concerns included: The HAMR technology faces significant challenges displacing the 70-year established Kroll process and may not be commercially viable at scale The titanium powder market is already oversupplied with approximately 3.5x more global capacity than current shipments Several IperionX customer partnerships have expired or are no longer referenced by the company No revenues had been booked and no inventory appeared on the balance sheet as of September 30, 2025 IPX management overlap with Piedmont Lithium, which previously faced its own short seller allegations IperionX had a prior material weakness in internal controls, which the company states was remediated Potential discrepancies in financial and operational reporting including Titan acreage, capex, G&A costs, and employee counts Key facts from IperionX's November 17 rebuttal: IperionX confirmed it has no record of any prior contact by phone or email from Spruce Point before publication Spruce Point visited the former North Carolina office address, no longer the primary operation. IperionX clarified that nearly all operations, workforce, and administrative activities had relocated to Virginia. The person Spruce Point spoke with was someone at a neighboring business who said they never see anyone at the NC office. Spruce Point has never visited or requested to visit the Virginia manufacturing facility. IperionX confirmed $79.2M in cash and equivalents as at September 30, 2025 (the most recent quarterly figure at the time of rebuttal) IperionX confirmed all government awards, noted $43M in remaining obligated DoW funding available to draw, and cited $97M+ in additional SBIR funding capacity IperionX pointed to active commercial contracts including Ford, Panerai, and titanium fasteners already delivered to the U.S. Army GVSC for testing on an operational platform Post-report context: The $12.5M IBAS tranche (August 2025) and $25M IBAS tranche (September 2025) both preceded the October 3 short report. After the report was published, the DoW continued to obligate additional funding tranches and the U.S. Army placed a new task order. IperionX states it has no record of any prior contact from Spruce Point before publication, and that Spruce Point visited a former North Carolina office address and spoke with someone at a neighboring business, having never visited or requested to visit the Virginia facility. Readers should review both the Spruce Point report and IperionX's November 17 rebuttal directly. The Team Taso Arima, CEO and Founder. Previously founded Piedmont Lithium (NASDAQ: PLL). Piedmont experienced permitting failures in North Carolina and was ultimately absorbed into a merger with Sayona Mining. The Titan Project in Tennessee has all major permits received prior to any mine development spend. Todd Hannigan, Executive Chairman. Mining engineer (University of Queensland), INSEAD MBA. Prior roles at BHP Billiton, Xstrata Coal, MIM. Also Executive Chairman of Brazilian Rare Earths. Personal shareholding approximately AU$86M. Toby Symonds, President. Prior roles at JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, SAC Capital. Responsible for commercial customer development. Built the 200+ customer NDA pipeline. Scott Sparks, COO and Co-Founder. Engineering and operations lead. Has been with the company since founding. Dominic Allen, CCO. Prior roles at Rio Tinto and Ernst and Young. Top 20 shareholder as of last annual report. Board: Lorraine Martin (former Lockheed Martin EVP, Rotary and Mission Systems, 34,000 personnel), Beverly Wyse (former Boeing SVP, 787 Dreamliner South Carolina operations), Tony Tripeny (former Corning CFO, Wharton MBA). Upcoming Catalysts Half-Year Financial Report (HY FY2026) IperionX's half-year financial report covering the six months ended December 31, 2025 is expected shortly. Virginia is fully commissioned. The Ford contract commenced in 2025, the Rheinmetall order was placed January 2026, and the Carver Pump order was placed December 2025. This will be the first report where commercial revenue could appear. 2026: GenX Commercial-Scale Validation In February 2026, IperionX introduced GenX, its next-generation continuous HAMR platform. Commercial-scale validation milestones and performance data are expected during 2026. IperionX has stated GenX is the basis for scaling toward 10,000+ tpa by 2030. Q2 2026: Titan DFS Definitive Feasibility Study for the Tennessee mine. Will provide the first formal economic assessment of both the titanium and rare earth resources, including Dysprosium and Terbium. The DFS is fully funded by the U.S. Department of War. Mid-2027: 1,400 TPA Expansion DoW IBAS grant is fully obligated to fund the scale-up from 200 tpa to 1,400 tpa. Total expansion cost is approximately $75M, the majority of which is secured via the $47.1M IBAS award. At full utilization and $200/kg average selling price, projected revenue is approximately $280M against approximately $40M OPEX, implying approximately $260M EBITDA. These are company projections, not guaranteed outcomes. The company has also stated a goal of reaching EBITDA positive territory by year-end 2026 at current 200 tpa capacity. Current Financials Balance Sheet (as of December 31, 2025) Cash and cash equivalents: $65.8M (confirmed from December 2025 quarterly report) Debt: $3.93M Net cash position: approximately $61.9M ($65.8M cash minus $3.93M debt) Current ratio: 6.99 Debt to equity ratio: 0.04 Shares outstanding: 333.92 million (increased 36.29% over the past year due to capital placements) Total assets: $105.03M Total equity: $92.44M Total liabilities: $12.59M Cash Flow (most recent data from December 2025 quarterly) Operating cash outflow H1 FY2026 (6 months to Dec 31, 2025): $16.7M = approximately $33.4M annualised Capital expenditures H1 FY2026: $16.4M = approximately $32.8M annualised Free cash flow: approximately negative $66M annualised at current capex deployment rate (capex is expected to decrease once equipment orders are placed and installed) The December 2025 quarterly's own Appendix 5B runway estimate: 7 quarters (approximately 21 months) at the December quarter's operating burn rate of $8.9M/quarter, based on $65.8M cash $46.5M in remaining government grant reimbursements substantially extends effective runway beyond the stated 21 months, as those funds are drawn as milestones are invoiced Valuation (at current price of approximately $47.58 per ADS) Current market cap: approximately $1.30B Enterprise value: approximately $1.24B (market cap minus net cash) Revenue: $0 trailing twelve months EV/Revenue: not applicable (pre-revenue) Operating loss FY2025: $38.33M Net loss FY2025: $35.35M EPS FY2025: negative $0.119 per share (negative $1.191 per ADS given 1:10 ratio) Return on equity: negative 49.17% Return on assets: negative 44.06% Forward EV/EBITDA at projected $260M EBITDA (analyst-derived, 1,400 tpa scenario): approximately 4.8x Capital Structure Note Share count has increased 36.29% over the past year due to four institutional placements totaling approximately $246M, none of which included a Share Purchase Plan for retail shareholders. This dilution should be factored into any per-share price projections going forward. Additional capital raises are likely before the 1,400 tpa expansion is fully funded and operational. Competitive Landscape ATI Inc. (NYSE: ATI) is the largest U.S. titanium metals producer, drawing approximately 66% of Q1 2025 revenue from aerospace and defense. ATI has secured a five-year USD $1 billion supply pact with Airbus and holds $1.2 billion in long-term commitments from aerospace and defense customers. ATI is currently expanding its titanium melt capacity at its Richland, Washington facility, with the expansion projected to bring total titanium melt capacity approximately 80% higher than 2022 levels across all facilities once fully qualified, with product qualifications expected through 2025. ATI holds a pilot production program for additive manufacturing grade titanium powder. However, ATI remains entirely dependent on imported titanium sponge as its primary feedstock, sourcing sponge from Japan, Kazakhstan, and other foreign suppliers. ATI's own annual report explicitly cites foreign sponge dependency as a supply chain risk to its operations. TIMET (Titanium Metals Corporation), now a subsidiary of Precision Castparts (owned by Berkshire Hathaway), was historically the only U.S. producer of titanium sponge. However, TIMET's Henderson, Nevada sponge facility has been idled since 2020 and its Rowley, Utah facility has been idle since 2016. There is currently no active commercial titanium sponge production facility operating in the United States. Howmet Aerospace (NYSE: HWM) is a major engineered components manufacturer that works extensively with titanium among other materials, recording 17% commercial aerospace sales growth in Q3 2024. Howmet is a downstream fabricator rather than a primary titanium producer and is similarly dependent on imported sponge feedstock upstream. In the titanium powder segment specifically, competitors include AP&C (a GE Additive company) producing plasma atomized titanium powders for additive manufacturing, and Kymera International. These companies focus on powder for additive manufacturing. Metalysis, a UK-based company, developed the FFC Cambridge electrochemical process that also bypasses Kroll. It remains pre-commercial and does not have a domestic U.S. operation or equivalent government backing. IperionX's process does not require sponge, works from both scrap and domestic mineral concentrate, and is backed by a sole-source government contract structure. The company is not competing directly with existing U.S. sponge producers because no U.S. sponge production currently exists. No commercial revenue to date. All financial projections are forward-looking and unverified by actual commercial results. Execution risk. Scaling from 200 to 1,400 tpa is a 7x increase. Manufacturing scale-ups frequently experience delays, yield problems, and cost overruns. Government dependency. Current cash flow is primarily grant reimbursements. Commercial revenue needs to materialize independently. Founder track record. Arima's prior venture Piedmont Lithium experienced significant operational and permitting failures before a merger. Retail dilution. Four capital placements totaling approximately $246M have been completed without a Share Purchase Plan for retail shareholders. Foreign incorporation. Australian domicile creates potential future FOCI and ITAR compliance complexity as defense contracts scale. XM30 program uncertainty. Army leadership paused the Milestone B decision in February 2026. If the program is restructured significantly or General Dynamics wins, the potential upside from Rheinmetall relationship may be reduced. How To Buy This On NASDAQ IperionX is primarily listed on the ASX but also trades on NASDAQ under ticker IPX as an ADS (American Depositary Share). One ADS represents 10 ASX ordinary shares. It is accessible through standard U.S. brokerages including Fidelity, Schwab, TD Ameritrade, and Interactive Brokers. Current price: approximately $47.58 as of early March 2026. The company is Australian-incorporated but operates entirely on U.S. soil. All financials are reported in USD. All operations, contracts, and government relationships are U.S.-based. Not financial advice. I hold a position in IPX. Do your own research. Positions: Long IPX submitted by /u/Feelinglikeatamale [link] [comments]

To the more experienced and older investors here on Reddit: as you progressed through different stages of life, how did your investment strategy evolve? Did you continue diversifying your portfolio across multiple asset classes, or did you eventually consolidate and move a larger portion of your wealth into one or two core investments? I’m also curious about how your risk tolerance changed with age. Did you become more conservative to protect capital, or did your experience give you the confidence to take calculated risks? submitted by /u/Due_Doubt2721 [link] [comments]

Recent market impacts for new investors ​Hey everyone, I’m a relatively new investor (about 3 years in) with most of my money in a Roth IRA and some CDs. My Roth is a 60/40 split of domestic and international total market funds, which seemed like a solid, boring plan until the recent world events started tanking everything. ​I know this is probably just a temporary dip, but things are definitely starting to get to me. I feel like I put my most recent contributions in right at the top of the market and then immediately watched them go into the red. It's one thing to hear "stay the course," but it's another thing entirely to see your total balance drop below what you actually put in. ​I was just curious what most people in my shoes would do here. Is the consensus really just to keep the blinders on and keep contributing like nothing is happening, or is there a point where you actually start to worry about the allocation itself? Just trying to figure out if this "buy and hold" mental test is something everyone goes through or if I'm just exceptionally bad at timing my entries. Do I just uninstall my investment app and ignore? Thanks in advance! submitted by /u/Beautiful_Gas_1214 [link] [comments]

I’m 18 and have saved about £1,600 so far. I’m planning on investing £700 of it into ETFs for the long term and was looking at something like 60% CSPX, 25% VWRP and 15% EQQQ. The idea would be to keep adding money over time rather than just leaving it there. I’ve been wondering how people usually balance ETFs with individual stocks. For example, putting some money into specific sectors or companies when opportunities come up (like defence companies with everything going on globally). I’ve also seen a lot of people talk about dividend investing but I don’t fully understand how that works yet or whether it’s something people focus on later rather than early on. At the moment the other £900 is just sitting in the Trading 212 cash ISA as a bit of a safety buffer. Just interested in hearing how other people structure things and what approaches people tend to take when they’re starting out. submitted by /u/Objective_Ad8234 [link] [comments]

Wanted to share some findings from an econometric analysis I ran on the Pakistan Stock Exchange, since frontier market research rarely makes it to this sub. The local financial press consistently frames PSX movements as sentiment-driven, attributing rallies to "optimism" and selloffs to "cautious investor sentiment." I wanted to test whether that narrative holds up empirically. Dataset: 494 PSX-listed equities, 253 trading weeks, February 2021 to December 2025. Returns computed as market-cap weighted averages. Sentiment derived from Dawn newspaper headlines using the Loughran-McDonald financial lexicon. What the analysis found: OLS across seven model specifications, contemporaneous through four-week lags with AR(1,2) controls, returns a maximum R-squared of 0.0179. Sentiment explains 1.79% of return variance. Granger causality tests at lags 1 through 8 return a minimum p-value of 0.64. No predictive signal in either direction. Event studies around three major political shocks, including the May 9 2023 civil unrest, show the market generated positive cumulative abnormal returns in the aftermath of each. Rolling 12-week correlation oscillates between +0.80 and -0.75 with no persistent direction, consistent with a shared macro driver rather than a causal relationship. The VAR confirms it. These are two independent series for all practical econometric purposes. Happy to discuss methodology or share the code for anyone interested. submitted by /u/SetOk2980 [link] [comments]

Some info about me first im a 33 year old male single renting an apartment right now in a desirable area of southern CA. I currently make about 80k a year and have saved 20k over the past few years. Initially I was planning on buying a car as I’ve never had a new car in my life but after speaking with my friends mom who is a realtor she sails saying I should invest in a condo and rent out the property. I just don’t know where to begin as I am unfamiliar with investing in rental properties and I want to make a good move with this money what would you do in my situation? submitted by /u/Ancient_Luck4306 [link] [comments]

We’ve launched r/wallstreet_scam_watch to document pump groups and suspicious trading Discords/telegraphs targeting us retail traders with the use of fake news reports to pull in unsuspecting victims. If you’ve seen activity around Grandmaster-Obi / Making Easy Money or others like this, we’re collecting screenshots and evidence. submitted by /u/MaxHeadroomT35 [link] [comments]

okay so this week had two completely separate things going on and i think its worth breaking down because the sector rotation was pretty obvious in hindsight. first thing - crypto finally bounced. bitcoin crossed $71k on wednesday, first time above 70 in almost a month. a lot of people locked profits right there which honestly was the right call because by friday it was sliding back to 69k. classic relief rally, people traded the level and moved on. second thing - energy kept running and this one has a very specific reason. US-Israeli forces struck Iran early in the week. Qatar, one of the biggest LNG exporters in the world, shut down supply routes. Europe and Asia suddenly had a gap to fill and the answer was obvious - US exporters. Cheniere, Venture Global, NextDecade all moved. the LNG sector as a whole finished the week up nearly 10% which sounds random until you know why. what was green this week: Liquefied Natural Gas up 9.57% across 7 stocks. direct cause - iran war, qatar offline, US fills the gap. not complicated once you know the context. Advertising Agencies up 7.59% across 6 stocks. honestly the quiet surprise of the week. ad spend holding up despite everything going on macro is a signal that corporate confidence hasnt fully cracked yet. two green weeks in a row for this one now. Security Services up 5.67% across 7 stocks. war breaks out, security names get a bid. pretty straightforward. Antibody Therapeutics up 4.85%. biotech quietly picked up this week, no single obvious catalyst, probably just money rotating somewhere away from energy and crypto noise. Blockchain up 4.57%. interesting one - more on this below. Sports Betting up 3.39%, Streaming Platforms up 2.55%, DevOps Tools up 1.92%, AI Infrastructure up 1.90%. AI infra barely green but still green. the capex story isnt dead, just taking a back seat while everyone watches the middle east. what got hit this week: Silver Mining down 13.46% across 16 stocks. Copper Mining down 13.27% across 9 stocks. Precious Metals down 12.96% across 9 stocks. the metals losses look worse than they are. silver hit an all time high above $120/oz in january then crashed 35% in a single day when the fed chair nomination news hit an already overcrowded trade. mining stocks have been slowly bleeding out from that ever since. 16 silver stocks all down 13% in the same week isnt 16 separate company problems, its one sector still unwinding from january's extreme. different story than it looks on the surface. back to blockchain - the interesting thing is that crypto spot gave back gains but blockchain infrastructure names stayed green. bitcoin falls, blockchain infra holds. that split usually means institutions are repositioning within crypto rather than fully leaving. not sure if it holds next week but worth keeping an eye on. things im watching next week - does qatar reopen LNG routes (if yes, premium in those names comes off fast), bitcoin holding above 70k needs ETF flows to confirm it, advertising agencies going green two weeks in a row is starting to look like something real, and AI infra at barely positive is one to watch if geopolitical noise settles down. curious if anyone else was tracking the LNG names this week or has a different read on the metals situation not financial advice, do your own research submitted by /u/Sudden-Duty312 [link] [comments]

I’m curious about everyone’s research process. When you’re looking into a company, what level do you usually stop at? Do you mostly stay at the sector level (e.g., Technology or Energy) Or do you feel the need to go deep into the specific industry for every single ticker (looking at niche competitors, specific supply chains, industry-specific regulations, etc.)? I’m trying to figure out if going that deep is actually worth the extra time, or if staying at the sector level is enough for most people. What’s your approach? submitted by /u/Constant_Lack3821 [link] [comments]

I'm in the UK and starting a Vanguard junior ISA (essentially a tax free stocks and shares account) for my daughter who's 3. Considering it isn't to be uesd until she's 18 or so, what vanguard fund would folks here recommend? The following keep coming up in the research I've done and wondering if any stand out as the best option? Vanguard FTSE Global All Cap Vanguard LifeStrategy 80% (Classic) Vanguard LifeStrategy Global 80% (New) Vanguard FTSE All-World ETF (VWRP) Thanks so much submitted by /u/Tiny_Major_7514 [link] [comments]

First Brands creditors expect upcoming asset sales at the bankrupt car parts maker to bring in less than $200mn, leaving holders of its $12bn in debt nursing heavy losses. Advisers to First Brands hope to sell several assets in the coming weeks, with two potential buyers interested in the businesses, said people familiar with the matter. The company, senior lenders and unsecured creditors were discussing clawback efforts through a “litigation trust” to pursue the James family, Onset Financial and potentially other parties, said multiple people involved in the bankruptcy. Court filings say company founder Patrick James funded a lavish lifestyle of multiple mansions and fancy cars with money that did not belong to him, though it remains unclear if sales of those assets could make creditors whole. Recovering money through lawsuits is a costly process that can take years and is not guaranteed. First Brands collapsed last September after rumours of financial irregularities prevented the company from completing a multibillion-dollar refinancing transaction over the summer. Federal prosecutors charged James with fraud in January, alleging a wide-ranging scheme of “double pledging” collateral to obtain more loans as well as fabrication of company invoices. James and his brother Edward, who worked in a senior finance role at the company, have separately been sued by the First Brands bankruptcy estate which is hoping to recover billions of dollars that it alleges James improperly took out of the business. First Brands has also sued Onset, a Utah-based lender, seeking potentially billions of dollars in damages for charging steep interest rates on sale-leaseback transactions with the car parts maker in which it financed inventory and hard assets for short-term cash. First Brands in early January announced that instead of reorganising as a standalone business, it would instead pursue a sale of all or parts of the company, which makes air filters, windscreen wipers and spark plugs. Patrick and Edward James and Onset have denied wrongdoing. “Patrick James is presumed innocent and unequivocally denies all allegations and charges against him,” a spokesperson said. “He built First Brands from nothing into a global industry leader and has always been devoted to the success of the company.” A spokesperson for Onset accused First Brands of trying to evade responsibility. “Onset was a victim of their fraud and attempts by various parties to suggest otherwise continue to be strategic and self-serving posturing in the bankruptcy matter.” First Brands declined to comment. Representatives for Edward James did not respond to a request for comment. The bankruptcy case has been hobbled by First Brand’s difficulty in increasing production and sales to fund the case and show potential buyers that its operations are worth purchasing. The company raised $1.1bn in a bankruptcy loan last autumn but quickly burned through the money. Lenders were unwilling to extend additional financing, with the bankruptcy loan now trading at less than 20 cents on the dollar. Many of the lenders have sold off their pieces of the loan for heavy losses. https://www.ft.com/content/db7b4722-1412-4b0c-88bd-eb925fad0e96 submitted by /u/Possible-Shoulder940 [link] [comments]

I have been thinking about this a lot lately. Google is my biggest position, about $20K, and last April I kept buying while the stock was dropping on all the AI fear around search. Maybe I was early, maybe I got lucky, but my thinking was pretty simple: the business itself did not seem broken. Search was still dominant YouTube was still huge Cloud was still growing The company was still making a ton of money So while the headlines were basically saying “Google is COOKED,” I felt like the actual fundamentals had not really changed that much Honestly, it feels like some of that is happening again now. Same fear, different week. One thing that helped me stay confident was looking at what other serious investors owned. Not because I think copying 13Fs is some magic strategy, but because if a smart investor has a big position in something, it at least makes me want to look closer and ask what they might be seeing. Do you actually use investor portfolios and 13Fs as part of your research, or do you mostly ignore them and just focus on the company itself? I am somewhere in the middle. I do not blindly follow them, but I do think they can be useful for finding ideas and giving me more conviction when my own research already points the same way submitted by /u/ekonixlab [link] [comments]

Hi all, I run a medical aesthetics clinic in San Diego, CA. We currently have 4 IT staff, but with cost-cutting measures coming up, we’re considering outsourcing some IT services instead. From a financial and investing perspective, I’m trying to figure out if outsourcing IT is really worth the investment?? Permission to post, admins. Thanks! submitted by /u/Background-Zebra5491 [link] [comments]

So the Bloomberg and Reuters reports from March 5 sent semiconductor stocks lower, which is the correct first-order reaction. But I think most of the commentary is conflating two different questions: who gets hurt by this specific draft framework, and whether this changes the investment thesis for AI infrastructure. On the first question: yes, if finalized as written, Nvidia and AMD face bureaucratic friction on their international order pipelines. That's real. The tiered licensing structure (under 1K GPUs = basic review, 200K+ = host-government security commitments) adds latency to hyperscaler orders in Europe and Asia. That's not nothing. But here's what I think the market is missing: the draft explicitly exempts domestic U.S. data center demand. The hyperscaler capex cycle (AWS, Azure, Google) is overwhelmingly U.S.-centric in terms of build-out timing. Microsoft just committed $80B in data center capex for 2025–2026. That doesn't stop at the border. More importantly, export controls on chip sales don't affect the companies that make the equipment used to manufacture chips. ASML's EUV machines are still going to TSMC to produce the chips Nvidia designs. AMAT, LRCX, KLAC supply process equipment to every foundry on the planet building advanced nodes. TSMC's 2nm capacity is fully sold out for 2026 regardless of what happens to U.S. chip export rules. So the honest read is: controls are a headwind for NVDA and AMD international revenue growth. They're largely neutral or mildly positive for equipment companies and pure foundry plays like TSM. Separately, the AVAV situation is more interesting than it looks. The stock dropped 17% on March 2 on SCAR recompetition risk. But SCAR revenue is ~6% of their FY2026 guidance. They just got a $186M Switchblade delivery order. And they're reporting Q3 earnings March 10. If the SCAR situation resolves and Q3 shows execution, the stock could recover meaningfully. If Q3 misses and SCAR confirms lost revenue, it's a different conversation. That binary setup is why we haven't added to the position. Happy to discuss any of this further, curious what others are seeing on the export control framework specifically. submitted by /u/acceinvestments [link] [comments]

Seeing oil go crazy right now has made me wonder: does tension in Iran / Middle East nearly guarantee that oil does well? How accurate are macro signals when it comes to the stock market? For example: natural gas. Natural gas usage rises during the winter, so does that get priced in during the fall? Does it happen like clockwork every year? Does money printing and liquidity mean that crypto pumps? I’ve mostly invested based off of patterns previously, but I am starting to wonder if there is a strong enough connection between real world signals to invest based off of what is happening in the real world instead of previous patterns or charts submitted by /u/Smugbasturd [link] [comments]

Objective: Invest in great companies with high growth potential and a competitive edge over the market. I want to invest in companies that I have a strong conviction in and will be comfortable holding for long periods of time. Investing Timeline: Ideally, every stock I own should be held for a minimum of one year and ideally a longer term of at least 3-5 years. My goal as a young investor is to invest money now and be able to have that money compound and grow for the coming years. Buying: The company should have a dominant moat in its field and a strategic advantage above competition. The company must have a healthy long term outlook and have potential for growth in the future. The company must create value, capture value and protect value. For example, Amazon creates value by helping deliver goods to people in an extremely convenient manner. Amazon’s moat is that it has become the go to shopping platform. It captures value by taking a commission and including advertisements on the platform. It has managed to protect its value by beating out competition, continuing to expand the platform and having high switching costs. Amazon is one of the best examples of creating, capturing and protecting value which makes them very attractive as a long term hold. In addition, I should have knowledge of the company, the space they are in and the competitors they have. The company should have a 10% per year return if entered into a DCF, ideally above a 15% return per year in order to have a margin of safety. The leadership team should be competent and efficient. Ideally I want the original founder still involved in the company. A new company will only be added if I have a stronger conviction in the new company than my conviction in my lowest holding. Before buying, I will write a substack about the company which includes at least 2-3 strong bear cases for the company. Selling: If a company has changed their brand and their mission is no longer aligned with my original thesis for investing in the company, consider selling. If a company goes up to 100% profits, trim half of the stock so that I am investing with “house money”. This will minimize the chances that I will want to sell the stock at any point in the future. Never sell the ETFs that I own, (S&P, Nasdaq). Holdings: Invest about 25-50% in ETFs. Invest the other in single stocks that I have a strong conviction into. Have no position as larger than a 15% holding. Smaller positions should be a minimum of a 2-3% holding in order to not be too diluted and so that I will truly track every holding of mine. Every quarter (Jan, April, July, October) I will rank all my holdings in terms of conviction and decide whether I want to invest more into my higher conviction stocks. If a holding is consistently ranked in the last three after two periods consider selling or trimming the position. Crypto/Gold: Open up a small 1% position in crypto. This position is highly speculative and being opened in order to have an asymmetric hedge in case crypto goes up. That being said, it is a position small enough that it will not do any large damage to the portfolio if it goes downhill. If crypto doubles, the same rule applies and I will trim half of my position and reinvest it into more secure holdings. Currently I don’t want to have a position in Gold as it is trading at an all time high valuation. If Gold drops a significant amount I might revisit this and open up a small position similar to Crypto. Thoughts? submitted by /u/Roadtochessmaster [link] [comments]